5 resultados para Forecast

em Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database


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Metal production consumes around 10% of all global energy, so is a significant driver of climate change and other concerns about sustainability. Demand for metal is rising and forecast to double by 2050 through a combination of growing total demand from developing countries, and ongoing replacement demand in developed economies. Metal production is already extremely efficient, so the major opportunities for emissions abatement in the sector are likely to arise from material efficiency - using less new metal to meet demand for services. Therefore this paper examines the opportunity to reduce requirements for steel and aluminium by lightweight design. A set of general principles for lightweight design are proposed by way of a simple analytical example, and are then applied to five case study products which cumulatively account for 30% of global steel product output. It is shown that exploiting lightweight design opportunities for these five products alone could reduce global steel requirements by 5%, and similar savings in aluminium products could reduce global aluminium requirements by 7%. If similar savings to those in the design case studies were possible in all steel and aluminium products, total material requirements could be reduced by 25-30%. However, many of these light-weighting measures are, at present, economically unattractive, and may take many years to implement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Using energy more efficiently is essential if carbon emissions are to be reduced. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy efficiency improvements represent the largest and least costly savings in carbon emissions, even when compared with renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage. Yet, how should future priorities be directed? Should efforts be focused on light bulbs or diesel engines, insulating houses or improving coal-fired power stations? Previous attempts to assess energy efficiency options provide a useful snapshot for directing short-term responses, but are limited to only known technologies developed under current economic conditions. Tomorrow's economic drivers are not easy to forecast, and new technical solutions often present in a disruptive manner. Fortunately, the theoretical and practical efficiency limits do not vary with time, allowing the uncertainty of economic forecasts to be avoided and the potential of yet to be discovered efficient designs to be captured. This research aims to provide a rational basis for assessing all future developments in energy efficiency. The global fow of energy through technical devices is traced from fuels to final services, and presented as an energy map to convey visually the scale of energy use. An important distinction is made between conversion devices, which upgrade energy into more useable forms, and passive systems, from which energy is lost as low temperature heat, in exchange for final services. Theoretical efficiency limits are calculated for conversion devices using exergy analysis, and show a 89% potential reduction in energy use. Efforts should be focused on improving the efficiency of, in relative order: biomass burners, refrigeration systems, gas burners and petrol engines. For passive systems, practical utilisation limits are calculated based on engineering models, and demonstrate energy savings of 73% are achievable. Significant gains are found in technical solutions that increase the thermal insulation of building fabrics and reduce the mass of vehicles. The result of this work is a consistent basis for comparing efficiency options, that can enable future technical research and energy policy to be directed towards the actions that will make the most difference.

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This paper examines the sources of uncertainly in models used to predict vibration from underground railways. It will become clear from this presentation that by varying parameters by a small amount, consistent with uncertainties in measured data, the predicted vibration levels vary significantly, often by more than 10dB. This error cannot be forecast. Small changes made to soil parameters (Compressive and Shear Wave velocities and density), to slab bending stiffness and mass and to the measurement position give rise to changes in vibration levels of more than lOdB. So if 10dB prediction error results from small uncertainties in soil parameters and measurement position it cannot be sensible to rely on prediction models for accuracy better than 10dB. The presentation will demonstrate in real time the use of the new - and freely-available - PiP software for calculating vibration from railway tunnels in real time.

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Nanoindentation is ideal for the characterization of inhomogeneous biological materials. However, the use of nanoindentation techniques in biological systems is associated with some distinctively different techniques and challenges. For example, engineering materials used in the microelectronics industry (e.g. ceramics and metals) for which the technique was developed, are relatively stiff and exhibit time-independent mechanical responses. Biological materials, on the other hand, exhibit time-dependent behavior, and can span a range of stiffness regimes from moduli of Pa to GPa - eight to nine orders of magnitude. As such, there are differences in the selection of instrumentation, tip geometry, and data analysis in comparison with the "black box" nanoindentation techniques as sold by commercial manufacturers. The use of scanning probe equipment (atomic force miscroscopy) is also common for small-scale indentation of soft materials in biology. The book is broadly divided into two parts. The first part presents the "basic science" of nanoindentation including the background of contact mechanics underlying indentation technique, and the instrumentation used to gather mechanical data. Both the mechanics background and the instrumentation overview provide perspectives that are optimized for biological applications, including discussions on hydrated materials and adaptations for low-stiffness materials. The second part of the book covers the applications of nanoindentation technique in biological materials. Included in the coverage are mineralized and nonmineralized tissues, wood and plant tissues, tissue-engineering substitute materials, cells and membranes, and cutting-edge applications at molecular level including the use of functionalized tips to probe specific molecular interactions (e.g. the ligand-receptor binding). The book concludes with a concise summary and an insightful forecast of the future highlighting the current challenges. © 2011 by Pan Stanford Publishing Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved.